Saudi Arabia’s quest for strategic autonomy

Context: The Impact of Saudi Arabia’s Changing Foreign Policy on South and Central Asia

Background:

Saudi Arabia has historically had a foreign policy centered on Iran.
The nation is now seeking to reach out to old rivals, hold talks with new enemies, and balance between great powers.

How is Saudi foreign policy changing?

Previously, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy was primarily driven by hostility towards Iran.
This led to proxy conflicts across the region.
However, the nation is now shifting towards an expansionist policy, which could have implications for countries in South Asia and Central Asia.

Implications for South and Central Asia:

Saudi Arabia is currently India’s fourth-largest trading partner, with over 18% of India’s crude oil imports sourced from the kingdom.
Given this economic relationship, it is important for India to monitor Saudi Arabia’s changing foreign policy as a benchmark for its own concerns in West Asia.

Global Influence of Saudi Arabia’s Expansionist Approach:

Saudi Arabia’s Economy:

Largest economy in the Middle East
18th largest economy by nominal GDP and 17th largest by PPP

Saudi’s Recent Diplomatic Moves:

Normalizing diplomatic ties with Iran after China-mediated talks
Reports of Russia mediating talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, potentially leading to Syria re-entering the Arab League
Saudi-Omani delegation traveling to Yemen to hold talks with Houthi rebels for a permanent ceasefire

Decisive Shift in Policy:

These moves mark a departure from the policy previously adopted by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman

Balancing Between Superpowers:

Saudi Arabia is trying to balance its relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China
The U.S. is its largest arms supplier, Russia is its OPEC-Plus partner, and China is a rising superpower in the region

Reasons for Saudi’s shift:

China’s Mediation Offer:

China’s offer to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia provided the latter with an opportunity to seize the deal.

Iran Remains a Concern:

Despite the shift, Iran would continue to be a driving factor in Saudi Arabia’s security concerns and strategic calculations.

Shift from Rivalry to Coexistence:

Saudi Arabia has moved away from a strategy of strategic rivalry and proxy conflicts with Iran to a more tactical approach focused on de-escalation and mutual coexistence.

Implications for the region:

Saudi Arabia’s Challenge:

The main challenge facing Saudi Arabia is to maintain its autonomy without going too far and causing friction with the United States.

Impacts on India:

Saudi Arabia’s Closeness with China:

Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic rapprochement with Iran, brokered by China, highlights the renewed pragmatism of the Kingdom and its main trading partner.

Russia and Saudi Arabia: The relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia has expanded since the launch of the OPEC+ oil production deal in 2016 and King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s historic first visit to Moscow in October 2017.